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The Newsroom - 2008 |
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ECONOMY: State's jobless rate at 14-year high

Construction, casinos see Southern Nevada job bases dwindle

June 21, 2008 - As a world-class culinary destination, Las Vegas should
offer a buffet of job opportunities for food-and-beverage worker Jeff Hill.

Instead of feasting on multiple offers, though, Hill finds little appetite for
new hires among local hotels and restaurants.

Friday's numbers from the state's Department of Employment, Training and
Rehabilitation reveal just how much competition Hill faces.

Statistics show Nevada's unemployment rate leapt half a percent from April to
May, rising from 5.7 percent to a 14-year high of 6.2 percent. That's up from
4.7 percent in the same month a year earlier, and it also bests the national
jobless rate of 5.5 percent.

In Las Vegas, unemployment vaulted from 5.5 percent in April to 5.9 percent in
May. The share of Las Vegans out of work in May 2007 totaled 4.2 percent by
comparison.

Southern Nevada's two biggest employment sectors, hotel-casinos and
construction, reported shrinking job bases. Employment inside area resorts fell
1.3 percent year over year in May, while positions in construction dropped 9.7
percent in the same period.

Service-sector jobs grew at a flat 0.3 percent pace, while jobs in government
rose 3.1 percent.

State officials attributed May's surge in joblessness to three factors: a
long-term housing slowdown, skyrocketing fuel prices and a seasonal bump in job
seekers thanks to the end of the school year.

The housing slump, which has seen new-home sales in the Las Vegas Valley drop
below 1,000 units a month for most of 2008, has meant fewer jobs for
construction workers.

Record gasoline prices above $4 a gallon have curbed drive-in traffic to Las
Vegas by 7.8 percent compared with inbound car trips a year ago, while passenger
counts at McCarran International Airport were off 5.5 percent. The drop in
visitors has hurt local casinos, which have announced hundreds of layoffs in
recent months.

What's more, high-school students, college graduates and teachers looking for
summer work hit the labor market in May, swelling the ranks of job hunters even
as the retail, construction and hospitality posts such population segments
typically take failed to materialize.

May's results lay to rest the "myth" that Nevada feels economic torpor less, and
for shorter periods, than the rest of the country, said Jered McDonald, an
economist with the employment department.

"Our economy is based on tourism and retail, and when people have less money to
put into those sectors, we're going to see an employment decline," McDonald
said. "We have historically high gasoline prices, and right now it looks like
that's coming home to roost."

But Brian Gordon, a principal in economic-research firm Applied Analysis, said
it's tough to draw broader conclusions from the current downturn because it
comes from a unique coalescence of factors, including a bust in record housing
prices and a cyclical dip in resort openings.

"I think there's some validity to the concept that Las Vegas is both resourceful
and resilient, but we have several factors creating a negative situation,"
Gordon said. "We never saw peaks in the housing market like the ones we had, and
we'll probably never see those kinds of peaks again. We've changed from record
highs to modest lows, and the degree of that change plays a role (in employment
trends)."

That perfect storm of economic turmoil has ensnared Irma Eninger.

Eninger lost her $15-an-hour job about a month ago, when the family who employed
her as a caregiver for their children let her go.

Eninger, who sat inside Nevada JobConnect Friday morning, had worked for the
family for 11/2 years. She's hoping to apply her 20 years of work experience to
a job in either food preparation or child care.

But Eninger grapples with more than mere job loss. She and her husband bought a
$300,000 home in North Las Vegas in 2005 using an option adjustable-rate
mortgage, and the interest rate has jumped to 8.5 percent. It could go to 12
percent in coming months. The couple listed the property recently at $180,000,
just more than half of what they bought it for three years ago. Savings help
cover Eninger's expenses, but her family has also cut back, spending virtually
nothing on dining out and shopping.

"It's really bad," said Eninger, 48. "I have no job, and everything is
expensive, especially gas prices."

Perhaps it's no consolation to Hill, Eninger and other unemployed workers, but
the state has posted worse labor markets.

May's joblessness falls short of the highest unemployment levels in Nevada
history. You'd have to visit the 1980s, when recession-era unemployment reached
10 percent or so, to find the biggest share of workers without jobs, McDonald
said.

But May's unemployment ranked as the state's highest since May 1994, when the
portion of jobless Nevadans also registered 6.2 percent.

McDonald said 1994 and 2008 share similarities beyond job loss.
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Graphic by Mike Johnson.
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High fuel prices, a stumbling housing market and inactivity in new resort
openings characterize both periods. But locals in each year could also look
forward to a pending boom in casino launches: The half a decade from 1995 to
2000 ushered in New York-New York, Monte Carlo, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, The
Venetian, the Aladdin (now Planet Hollywood Resort) and Paris Las Vegas, just as
2009 will begin a five-year wave of openings including massive, multi
billion-dollar projects such as CityCenter, Fontainebleau, Echelon and Encore at
Wynn Las Vegas.

McDonald said unemployment numbers could rise slightly through the summer and
fall, and ease downward starting in 2009 as resorts come online. Gordon agreed
that "signals of improvement" should emerge in mid-2009.

Hill hopes to land a job well before then -- perhaps within the next one to four
weeks. On Thursday, he joined Culinary Local 226, a major hospitality union with
60,000 area members and between the Culinary and Nevada JobConnect, he's
expecting several job leads daily. He's both tentative about the near term and
optimistic about the long range.

"I know finding work takes time," Hill said. "I'm going to stick it out in Vegas
because I believe, with the casinos building the way they are, something's bound
to come along."

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Author: J. Robison, Las Vegas Review-Journal
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